The bomb attack in Bangkok has yet to be attributed to anyone and it could remain like this if no genuine evidence is unearthed. What can be said is that it appears to target Asian tourists, although this is just an informed guess. Naturally conspiracy theories abound and, as the Guardian reports, the junta is clutching at straws, trying to cover up its incompetence. The danger is that Prayut will want to look as though he can solve this incident with “military efficiency”, thus leading to the arrest of scape-goats and then building fictitious links to the junta’s opponents. Many conspiracy theories can be ruled out. The junta is unlikely to have planted the bomb itself since it knows that it can prolong its political influence without such an excuse. The anti-reform process will ensure continued junta influence. Most experts have ruled out the Patani fighters. It is also not in keeping with Redshirt activists, despite the fact that the junta have been trying hard to link it to Redshirts. So called international IS Style terrorism is just a nonsense because the targets do not fit. We shall have to wait and see if there are any firm answers in the days ahead or whether it will be another of those Thai unsolved mysteries.
Both Normal Ghosh in the Straits Times and Jake Needham in his blog post, have raised the possibility of the bomb being placed by a faction of Uighur militants who would be angry with the Thai government for forcibly repatriating Uighur refugees to China. Many were then executed. This is the most realistic theory. But it still remains a theory.
Giles Ji Ungpakorn