(With an August update)
The Move Forward Party Prime Ministerial candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, has been barred from standing as Prime Minister, despite the fact that his party won the most votes in the May General Elections. In the first round of voting, a majority of elected MPs voted for him, but most of the 250 military appointed senators frustrated his win and then went on the vote against his second attempt to stand in the vote a few days later.
Despite the internet-based conspiracy theorists claiming that this was ordered by king Wachiralongkorn, there is a much simpler and truthful explanation. In 2014 Generalissimo Prayut staged a military coup against the democratically elected Pua Thai government, headed by Yingluk Shinawat. That government was supported by exiled former Prime Minister Taksin Shinawat, who himself was overthrown by a coup in 2006. The 2014 coup was supported by reactionary middle-class protests. Learning from the experience of the 2006 coup and the subsequent election results which led to the return of parties supported by Taksin Shinawat, the military decided that this time they needed to fix any future elections in favour of themselves and their supporters in the conservative establishment.
The junta designed the so-called 20-year National Strategy and wrote the current constitution. This paved the way for the military to appoint 250 senators, who would sit with the 500 elected MPs to choose future Prime Ministers. Together with using military inspired election laws and military supported judges, any political parties which became a threat to the conservative establishment were dissolved and some politicians banned.
Such an election fix, to create a Military “Guided Democracy” was necessary because repression alone was not enough to stop people voting for anti-military parties. General Prayut and his thuggish friends had been responsible for the brutal bloody repression of Red Shirt pro-democracy demonstrators in 2010.
All this explains why the first elections after the Prayut coup of 2014, which were held in 2019, resulted in Prayut becoming Prime Minister, despite winning less of the popular vote than his anti-military rivals.
During Prayut’s period in power after the 2019 election, mass protests against the military erupted in 2020. This was a new movement led by students and young people and at its highest point it managed to pull a hundred thousand people on to the streets.
However, the leadership of the movement showed important weaknesses. They failed to create democratic structures, like mass assemblies, to give the movement rank and file strength and guidance. They tended to lead by ad-hock discussions among a small group of young people, mistakenly believing that students and young people were a “pure force”, unlike the old Red Shirt movement. Despite the fact that many former Red Shirts and people of working age supported the youth, there were barriers to their mass participation. They remained just “supporters”.
However, the greatest weakness was the failure to involve the organised working class. This was partly due to the ideology of the youth which down-played the strength of workers, but also due to the fact that they had no means by which they could link up and help organise workers to join the fight. This was also a weakness related to the very small size of organised militant socialists.
The youth protests started to weaken when the leaders could not think of ways to further develop the movement. Attempts at so-called alternative symbolic methods of street protests, such as the use of rubber ducks, copied from Hong Kong, were a failure. The state then went on the offensive by charging the youth leaders under the notorious lèse-majesté law because they dared to criticise the playboy king Wachiralongkorn. The law is designed to protect all the conservatives, especially the military, by associating any criticism or opposition to the military as an insult against the monarchy. The military protect and use the powerless monarchy and claim legitimacy from the institution (see previous posts on this site).
As the protest movement dissipated, many young people turned towards placing their hopes in the parliamentary system, despite its being designed by the military. To many, it seemed like the best way out, given the circumstances. But it was a false hope. Many were drawn towards the Move Forward Party (formally called the Future Forward Party), which was the brain child of young businessman Tanatorn Juangroongruangkit and academic Piyabutr Saengkanokkul. Despite the party being a neo-liberal party of business, it tried to put on a progressive, anti-military face by promising to amend the lèse-majesté law and building links with a few union activists. Its other attraction was that it was not associated with Taksin Shinawat. The Move Forward Party is disliked by the conservative establishment and the military.
It would seem that after winning the most votes in the May 2023 elections, the hopes among young people of a parliamentary road to democracy and reducing the power of the military now lie in ruins.
Concentration on parliamentary elections encourages even the best politicians to make compromises and become opportunists. They shun the building of mass-movements and strikes, preferring to discuss parliamentary manoeuvres behind closed doors.
There are indications that the Pua Thai Party might now be prepared to make a grubby deal with the generals. Only time will tell. (See below).
Like in many countries, including Sudan and Egypt, for example, the way forward to abolishing the military dictatorship is to keep organising and strengthening mass, extra-parliamentary movements from below, paying special attention to the power of the working class. To do this more efficiently requires expanding the network and influence of revolutionary socialists instead of having false hopes in parties like Move Forward.
2nd August 2023 addition:
Pua Thai has just announced that it will try to form a government without Move Forward Party. It confirms that it totally supports the institution of the monarchy, which is “loved by all Thais” and is a “unifying institution”. It is strongly opposed to any changes in the lèse-majesté law. Pua Thai hopes that this will be enough for the senators not to oppose it.
Taksin Shinawat has announced that he will be returning to Thailand very soon. No doubt he has reached a deal with the conservatives. Pua Thai will also be engaging in grubby deals with political parties which supported the military.
None of this is any surprise. Taksin is, and always has been, a royalist.
Pua Thai, in the past, has tried unsuccessfully to do grubby deals concerning pardoning Taksin and the military murderers. That time it blew up in its face and led to Prayut’s coup.
Conclusion:
- The military constitution and election rules, involving military appointed senators, continue to distort democracy.
- Pua Thai has now become the front man for the military and the autocratic conservatives instead of General Prayut and his gang.
- The way forward to build democracy is the strengthening mass, extra-parliamentary movements from below, paying special attention to the power of the working class.
Giles Ji Ungpakorn
Uglytruth-Thailand 